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OLS vs OTP — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

OLS
OLS
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
OTP
OTP
10/15/2021Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 13Oulu-lehti Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

OLS47%
×Draw23%
OTP29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OLS
1.75
OTP
1.32

OLS creates 33% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 42 away

creates per match

OLS
1.71
OTP
1.29

allows per match

OLS
1.35
OTP
1.79

finishing

OLS+0.00on par
OTP+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OLS ↓

OTP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

OLS or draw
71%
OLS or OTP
77%
Draw or OTP
53%

Winning margin

OLS wins by 2+
26%
OTP wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

OLS 1+ goals
83%
OLS 2+ goals
52%
OLS 3+ goals
25%
OTP 1+ goals
73%
OTP 2+ goals
38%
OTP 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

OLS (draw refunded)
62%
OTP (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OLS at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.35 · 63 matches

OTP away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.79 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OLS attack 1.71 + OTP defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.75

OTP attack 1.29 + OLS defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

OLS scores more
47%
level
23%
OTP scores more
29%

OLS at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "OLS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OLS 2 – 4 OTP

OTP beat OLS 4-2 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on October 15, 2021.

The match was played at Oulu-lehti Areena in Oulu.