OLS 3–2 KuPS Akatemia: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

OLS

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

KuPS Akatemia

E. Raittinen 72' (pen)

E. Merikanto 52'

A. Räisänen 19'

K. Wehliye 90+2', 41'

8/5/2024

Ykkönen · Round 18Oulu-lehti Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

OLS60%

×Draw19%

KuPS Akatemia21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OLSExpected goals in this matchKuPS Akatemia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.43

1.41

OLS

2.43

KuPS Akatemia

1.41

OLS creates 72% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 36 away

2.51

creates per match

1.50

1.31

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

OLS

2.51

KuPS Akatemia

1.50

allows per match

OLS

1.31

KuPS Akatemia

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OLS+0.00on par

KuPS Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OLS ↓

KuPS Akatemia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

OLS or draw

79%

OLS or KuPS Akatemia

81%

Draw or KuPS Akatemia

40%

Winning margin

OLS wins by 2+

38%

KuPS Akatemia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

OLS 1+ goals

91%

OLS 2+ goals

69%

OLS 3+ goals

43%

KuPS Akatemia 1+ goals

76%

KuPS Akatemia 2+ goals

41%

KuPS Akatemia 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

OLS (draw refunded)

74%

KuPS Akatemia (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OLS at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

KuPS Akatemia away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OLS attack 2.51 + KuPS Akatemia defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.43

KuPS Akatemia attack 1.50 + OLS defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

OLS scores more

60%

level

19%

KuPS Akatemia scores more

21%

OLS at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "OLS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

E. Puolitaival← E. Kirjavainen

19'

29'

41'

46'

52'

64'

66'

T. Partanen← J. Moilanen

72'

E. RaittinenPenalty

73'

R. Kähkönen← O. Suutari

78'

O. Salmensuu

84'

J. Metsäkylä← O. Balde

84'

N. Mielonen← R. Tikkanen

87'

N. Sarkkinen← J. Paananen

89'

D. Säily← V. Saarikoski

90+1'

D. Saily

90+3'

J. Kivijarvi

90+5'

M. Ahmad Al Sheikh

90+2'

K. Wehliye

OLS

KuPS

12

Pitkänen

23

Mattila

2

▼

Tikkanen

6

Hanhineva

8

Kivijärvi

17

▼

Kirjavain

18

▼

Balde

15

Kivijärvi

10

⚽2

Wehliye

3

▼

9

59

48

32

45

▼

Saarikosk

51

▼

Paananen

38

⚽

Merikanto

53

⚽

▼

Räisänen

47

⚽

Raittinen

16

Salmensuu

3

Radziński

7

▼

Suutari

Manager: M. Isokangas

46'▲Rafinha←▼A. Räisänen

73'▲R. Kähkönen←▼O. Suutari

87'▲N. Sarkkinen←▼J. Paananen

89'▲D. Säily←▼V. Saarikoski

OLS substitutes

80Rafinha36Kähkönen31Sarkkinen60Säily37Piirto49Ridanpää23Pentti

Manager: S. Vielma

12'▲E. Puolitaival←▼E. Kirjavainen

66'▲T. Partanen←▼J. Moilanen

84'▲J. Metsäkylä←▼O. Balde

84'▲N. Mielonen←▼R. Tikkanen

KuPS Akatemia substitutes

7Puolitaival22Partanen11Metsäkylä5Mielonen1Saarelainen14Niskanen