Olmaliq 2–1 Kokand-1912: Result & Stats

Olmaliq

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kokand-1912

S. Tursunov 56'

E. Grigalashvili 54'

Y. Bamba 90+1'

7/7/2020

Super League · Round 8OKMK Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Olmaliq54%

×Draw24%

Kokand-191222%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlmaliqExpected goals in this matchKokand-1912

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.02

Olmaliq

1.72

Kokand-1912

1.02

Olmaliq creates 69% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 72 away

1.86

creates per match

0.88

1.17

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Olmaliq

1.86

Kokand-1912

0.88

allows per match

Olmaliq

1.17

Kokand-1912

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olmaliq+0.00on par

Kokand-1912+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olmaliq ↓

Kokand-1912 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Olmaliq or draw

78%

Olmaliq or Kokand-1912

76%

Draw or Kokand-1912

46%

Winning margin

Olmaliq wins by 2+

29%

Kokand-1912 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Olmaliq 1+ goals

82%

Olmaliq 2+ goals

51%

Olmaliq 3+ goals

25%

Kokand-1912 1+ goals

64%

Kokand-1912 2+ goals

27%

Kokand-1912 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Olmaliq (draw refunded)

71%

Kokand-1912 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olmaliq at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.17 · 94 matches

Kokand-1912 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olmaliq attack 1.86 + Kokand-1912 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.72

Kokand-1912 attack 0.88 + Olmaliq defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Olmaliq scores more

54%

level

24%

Kokand-1912 scores more

22%

Olmaliq at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Olmaliq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

S. Rakhmatov

35'

M. Khalmukhamedov

43'

B. Yuldashov

46'

S. Rakhmanov← S. Rakhmatov

54'

E. Grigalashvili

56'

S. Tursunov

59'

M. Muzaffarov← I. Malikjanov

61'

A. Amanow← M. Kosimov

61'

Z. Polvonov← M. Vatsadze

65'

K. Abdukhamidov← F. Rajevac

65'

M. Hasanov← S. Berdyev

69'

I. Zonjić← B. Abdurakhimov

78'

B. Akbarov

84'

S. Nurulloev← K. Ruziyev

84'

Y. Bamba← A. Merzlyakov

86'

S. Nurmatov← S. Tursunov

90+1'

Y. Bamba

Olmaliq

Kokand-1912

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Qosimov

46'▲S. Rakhmanov←▼S. Rakhmatov

61'▲A. Amanow←▼M. Kosimov

61'▲Z. Polvonov←▼M. Vatsadze

69'▲I. Zonjić←▼B. Abdurakhimov

86'▲S. Nurmatov←▼S. Tursunov

Olmaliq substitutes

RakhmanovAmanowPolvonovZonjićNurmatovShorakhmedovJuraevToshmatovRahimov

Manager: B. Ashurmatov

59'▲M. Muzaffarov←▼I. Malikjanov

65'▲K. Abdukhamidov←▼F. Rajevac

65'▲M. Hasanov←▼S. Berdyev

84'▲S. Nurulloev←▼K. Ruziyev

84'▲Y. Bamba←▼A. Merzlyakov

Kokand-1912 substitutes

MuzaffarovAbdukhamidovHasanovNurulloevBambaMamatxojaevAbdullaevAzimovSindarov

Match Recap: Olmaliq vs Kokand-1912

Olmaliq beat Kokand-1912 2-1 in Super League on July 7, 2020.

Goals: E. Grigalashvili (54'), S. Tursunov (56'), Y. Bamba (90+1').

The match was played at OKMK Sport Majmuasi in Almalyk.

Olmaliq vs Kokand-1912 — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Olmaliq vs Kokand-1912