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Oliveirense vs Felgueiras 1932 — Taça de Portugal 2018

Oliveirense
Oliveirense
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Felgueiras 1932
Felgueiras 1932
N. Pereira 98'
Jimi 83'
Rabiola 8' (pen)
9/29/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio de Ribes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Oliveirense27%
×Draw22%
Felgueiras 193251%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oliveirense
1.40
Felgueiras 1932
2.00

Felgueiras 1932 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Oliveirense
2.00
Felgueiras 1932
2.00

allows per match

Oliveirense
2.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.80

finishing

Oliveirense+0.00on par
Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveirense ↓

Felgueiras 1932 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Oliveirense or draw
49%
Oliveirense or Felgueiras 1932
78%
Draw or Felgueiras 1932
73%

Winning margin

Oliveirense wins by 2+
12%
Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Oliveirense 1+ goals
75%
Oliveirense 2+ goals
41%
Oliveirense 3+ goals
17%
Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals
86%
Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals
59%
Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Oliveirense (draw refunded)
34%
Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveirense at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Felgueiras 1932 away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveirense attack 2.00 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Felgueiras 1932 attack 2.00 + Oliveirense defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Oliveirense scores more
27%
level
22%
Felgueiras 1932 scores more
51%

Felgueiras 1932 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Felgueiras 1932 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
RabiolaPenalty
77'
78'
83'
Jimi
98'
N. Pereira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oliveirense vs Felgueiras 1932

Oliveirense and Felgueiras 1932 drew 0-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 29, 2019.

Goals: Rabiola (8' pen), Jimi (83'), N. Pereira (98').

The match was played at Estádio de Ribes in Santa Maria de Oliveira.