Oliveirense 3–1 Feirense: Result & Stats

Oliveirense

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Feirense

Ibrahima 90+5'

Zé Leite 65'

Duarte Duarte 14'

Sérgio Conceição 90+3' (pen)

8/15/2023

Segunda Liga · Round 1Estádio Carlos Osório

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Oliveirense37%

×Draw27%

Feirense36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OliveirenseExpected goals in this matchFeirense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.24

Oliveirense

1.25

Feirense

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 111 away

1.31

creates per match

1.08

1.40

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Oliveirense

1.31

Feirense

1.08

allows per match

Oliveirense

1.40

Feirense

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oliveirense+0.00on par

Feirense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveirense ↓

Feirense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Oliveirense or draw

64%

Oliveirense or Feirense

73%

Draw or Feirense

63%

Winning margin

Oliveirense wins by 2+

16%

Feirense wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Oliveirense 1+ goals

71%

Oliveirense 2+ goals

36%

Oliveirense 3+ goals

13%

Feirense 1+ goals

71%

Feirense 2+ goals

35%

Feirense 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Oliveirense (draw refunded)

50%

Feirense (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveirense at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.40 · 106 matches

Feirense away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.20 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveirense attack 1.31 + Feirense defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Feirense attack 1.08 + Oliveirense defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Oliveirense scores more

37%

level

27%

Feirense scores more

36%

Oliveirense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Oliveirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

Ibrahima

Oliveirense · M

8.3

Match Events

14'

Duarte Duarte

34'

Zé Leite← A. Carter

41'

Cláudio Silva

45+3'

Jose Manuel Albergaria Costa Leite

50'

Jorge Pereira

50'

Gonçalo Negrão← Diogo Casimiro

61'

Kazu

61'

Wellington Manzoli← Cláudio Silva

61'

João Paredes← Jorge Pereira

61'

Malam Camará← Henrique Jocú

64'

Malam Camara

65'

Zé Leite

69'

Filipe Almeida

70'

M. Ndione← Lucas Silva

70'

Sérgio Conceição← Filipe Almeida

73'

Wellington Tim

79'

Goncalo Negrao

80'

João Paulo← Zé Pedro

80'

Vasco Gadelho← Duarte Duarte

80'

Schürrle← Ricardo Schutte

83'

Filipe Alves

90+1'

Guilherme Soares

90+9'

Diogo Brás

90+3'

Sérgio ConceiçãoPenalty

90+5'

Ibrahima

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OliveirenseFeirense

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots20

8Corners5

16Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots20

4On Target6

7Off Target11

3Blocked3

11Inside Box8

3Outside Box12

Passing

48%Possession52%

313Total Passes355

229Accurate Passes275

73%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls15

5Yellow Cards6

5Offsides2

Match Recap: Oliveirense vs Feirense

Oliveirense beat Feirense 3-1 in Segunda Liga on August 15, 2023.

Goals: Duarte Duarte (14'), Zé Leite (65'), Sérgio Conceição (90+3' pen), Ibrahima (90+5').

Feirense controlled possession (52%) and registered 20 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estádio Carlos Osório in Oliveira de Azeméis.

Oliveirense vs Feirense — Segunda Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Oliveirense vs Feirense