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Oliveira Hospital vs Academica — Liga 3 2021

Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Academica
Academica
11/26/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 10Estádio Municipal de Tábua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Oliveira Hospital35%
×Draw26%
Academica39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oliveira Hospital
1.30
Academica
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 60 away

creates per match

Oliveira Hospital
1.38
Academica
1.52

allows per match

Oliveira Hospital
1.23
Academica
1.22

finishing

Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par
Academica+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveira Hospital ↓

Academica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Oliveira Hospital or draw
61%
Oliveira Hospital or Academica
74%
Draw or Academica
65%

Winning margin

Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
15%
Academica wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
73%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
37%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
14%
Academica 1+ goals
75%
Academica 2+ goals
40%
Academica 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
48%
Academica (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveira Hospital at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 56 matches

Academica away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveira Hospital attack 1.38 + Academica defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

Academica attack 1.52 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oliveira Hospital scores more
35%
level
26%
Academica scores more
39%

Academica at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Academica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oliveira Hospital vs Academica

Oliveira Hospital and Academica drew 2-2 in Liga 3 on November 26, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Tábua in Tábua.