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Olimpik-Mobiuz vs Metalourg — Pro League A 2026

Olimpik-Mobiuz
Olimpik-Mobiuz
Preview
13:00
Metalourg
Metalourg
9/10/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 19
39%
Olimpik-Mobiuz
model favours
39%25%36%
1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Olimpik-Mobiuz39%
×Draw25%
Metalourg36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpik-Mobiuz
1.50
Metalourg
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 5 away

creates per match

Olimpik-Mobiuz
1.59
Metalourg
1.80

allows per match

Olimpik-Mobiuz
1.03
Metalourg
1.40

finishing

Olimpik-Mobiuz+0.00on par
Metalourg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik-Mobiuz ↓

Metalourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Olimpik-Mobiuz or draw
64%
Olimpik-Mobiuz or Metalourg
75%
Draw or Metalourg
61%

Winning margin

Olimpik-Mobiuz wins by 2+
19%
Metalourg wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Olimpik-Mobiuz 1+ goals
78%
Olimpik-Mobiuz 2+ goals
44%
Olimpik-Mobiuz 3+ goals
19%
Metalourg 1+ goals
76%
Metalourg 2+ goals
41%
Metalourg 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Olimpik-Mobiuz (draw refunded)
52%
Metalourg (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik-Mobiuz at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Metalourg away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik-Mobiuz attack 1.59 + Metalourg defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Metalourg attack 1.80 + Olimpik-Mobiuz defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Olimpik-Mobiuz scores more
39%
level
25%
Metalourg scores more
36%

Olimpik-Mobiuz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Olimpik-Mobiuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Olimpik-Mobiuz
WLWLD
Metalourg
LWLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Olimpik-Mobiuz face Metalourg (Pro League A)

Pro League A returns with Olimpik-Mobiuz hosting Metalourg. Match starts September 10, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.