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Olimpia vs Cerro Porteno — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Olimpia
Olimpia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno
2/17/2024Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 6Estadio ueno Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Olimpia40%
×Draw25%
Cerro Porteno35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia
1.48
Cerro Porteno
1.35

Olimpia creates 10% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 96 away

creates per match

Olimpia
1.99
Cerro Porteno
1.66

allows per match

Olimpia
1.05
Cerro Porteno
0.98

finishing

Olimpia+0.00on par
Cerro Porteno+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia ↓

Cerro Porteno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Olimpia or draw
65%
Olimpia or Cerro Porteno
75%
Draw or Cerro Porteno
60%

Winning margin

Olimpia wins by 2+
19%
Cerro Porteno wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Olimpia 1+ goals
77%
Olimpia 2+ goals
43%
Olimpia 3+ goals
19%
Cerro Porteno 1+ goals
74%
Cerro Porteno 2+ goals
39%
Cerro Porteno 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Olimpia (draw refunded)
54%
Cerro Porteno (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.05 · 96 matches

Cerro Porteno away — creates 1.66, concedes 0.98 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia attack 1.99 + Cerro Porteno defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.48

Cerro Porteno attack 1.66 + Olimpia defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Olimpia scores more
40%
level
25%
Cerro Porteno scores more
35%

Olimpia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olimpia vs Cerro Porteno

Olimpia and Cerro Porteno drew 1-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio ueno Defensores del Chaco in Asunción.