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Olimpia Elbląg vs Garbarnia Kraków — II Liga - East 2019

Olimpia Elbląg
Olimpia Elbląg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
11/9/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 17Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Olimpia Elbląg39%
×Draw27%
Garbarnia Kraków35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Elbląg
1.33
Garbarnia Kraków
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 68 away

creates per match

Olimpia Elbląg
1.20
Garbarnia Kraków
1.28

allows per match

Olimpia Elbląg
1.20
Garbarnia Kraków
1.47

finishing

Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Elbląg ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Olimpia Elbląg or draw
65%
Olimpia Elbląg or Garbarnia Kraków
73%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
61%

Winning margin

Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+
18%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals
74%
Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals
38%
Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals
15%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
71%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
35%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)
53%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Elbląg at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 103 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Elbląg attack 1.20 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Olimpia Elbląg scores more
39%
level
27%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
35%

Olimpia Elbląg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Olimpia Elbląg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Olimpia Elbląg 1–1 Garbarnia Kraków

Olimpia Elbląg and Garbarnia Kraków drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Elbląg.