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Sacachispas vs Deportivo Español — Primera C 2026

Sacachispas
Sacachispas
FT
1 – 0
Deportivo Español
Deportivo Español
8/25/2012Primera CPrimera C · Round 4Estadio Beto Larrosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Sacachispas37%
×Draw30%
Deportivo Español33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sacachispas
1.11
Deportivo Español
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 131 away

creates per match

Sacachispas
1.27
Deportivo Español
0.93

allows per match

Sacachispas
1.11
Deportivo Español
0.96

finishing

Sacachispas+0.00on par
Deportivo Español+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sacachispas ↓

Deportivo Español →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sacachispas or draw
67%
Sacachispas or Deportivo Español
70%
Draw or Deportivo Español
63%

Winning margin

Sacachispas wins by 2+
15%
Deportivo Español wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sacachispas 1+ goals
67%
Sacachispas 2+ goals
30%
Sacachispas 3+ goals
10%
Deportivo Español 1+ goals
64%
Deportivo Español 2+ goals
27%
Deportivo Español 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sacachispas (draw refunded)
53%
Deportivo Español (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sacachispas at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Deportivo Español away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.96 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sacachispas attack 1.27 + Deportivo Español defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.11

Deportivo Español attack 0.93 + Sacachispas defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sacachispas scores more
37%
level
30%
Deportivo Español scores more
33%

Sacachispas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sacachispas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Sacachispas 1–0 Deportivo Español

Sacachispas beat Deportivo Español 1-0 in Primera C on August 25, 2012.

The match was played at Estadio Beto Larrosa.