Oleksandria 0–2 Zorya Luhansk: Result & Stats

Oleksandria

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Zorya Luhansk

A. Sayyadmanesh 90+5'

D. Ivanisenya 31'

12/13/2020

Premier League · Round 13KSK Nika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Oleksandria32%

×Draw24%

Zorya Luhansk43%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OleksandriaExpected goals in this matchZorya Luhansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.59

Oleksandria

1.35

Zorya Luhansk

1.59

Zorya Luhansk creates 18% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

0.86

creates per match

1.39

1.79

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Oleksandria

0.86

Zorya Luhansk

1.39

allows per match

Oleksandria

1.79

Zorya Luhansk

1.85

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Oleksandria-0.11scores less

Zorya Luhansk+0.28scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria ↓

Zorya Luhansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Oleksandria or draw

57%

Oleksandria or Zorya Luhansk

76%

Draw or Zorya Luhansk

68%

Winning margin

Oleksandria wins by 2+

14%

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Oleksandria 1+ goals

74%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

39%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

15%

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

80%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

47%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

43%

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.79 · 8 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.85 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria attack 0.86 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.35

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.39 + Oleksandria defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Oleksandria scores more

32%

level

24%

Zorya Luhansk scores more

43%

Zorya Luhansk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

-5'

3'

4'

8'

31'

35'

46'

D. Shastal← M. Tretyakov

46'

T. Stetskov← O. Dovgyi

49'

Vladyslav Kabaev

49'

Vladyslav Kabaev

54'

A. Sayyadmanesh← O. Gladkyi

61'

Artem Sitalo

66'

D. Bezborodko← A. Sitalo

72'

D. Ustymenko← V. Luchkevych

80'

V. Baboglo← A. Gordienko

82'

83'

83'

83'

84'

90+4'

M. Perović← A. Gromov

90+1'

D. Khomchenovskyi← A. Cigaņiks

90+4'

M. Lunev← V. Kochergin

90+5'

A. Sayyadmanesh↳ E. Nazaryna

Possession

Shots

Statistics

OleksandriaZorya

Overview

45%Possession55%

7Total Shots10

5Corners7

17Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots10

2On Target7

5Off Target3

Passing

45%Possession55%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls12

4Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards1