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Oleksandria vs Yarud Mariupol' — Persha Liga 2026

Oleksandria
Oleksandria
Preview
16:00
Yarud Mariupol'
Yarud Mariupol'
9/26/2026Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 9
51%
Oleksandria
model favours
51%27%22%

Oleksandria score first in only 15% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Oleksandria51%
×Draw27%
Yarud Mariupol'22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oleksandria
1.46
Yarud Mariupol'
0.85

Oleksandria creates 72% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 53 away

creates per match

Oleksandria
1.67
Yarud Mariupol'
1.04

allows per match

Oleksandria
0.67
Yarud Mariupol'
1.26

finishing

Oleksandria+0.00on par
Yarud Mariupol'+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 59Over: 4159%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria ↓

Yarud Mariupol' →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Oleksandria or draw
78%
Oleksandria or Yarud Mariupol'
73%
Draw or Yarud Mariupol'
49%

Winning margin

Oleksandria wins by 2+
26%
Yarud Mariupol' wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Oleksandria 1+ goals
77%
Oleksandria 2+ goals
43%
Oleksandria 3+ goals
18%
Yarud Mariupol' 1+ goals
57%
Yarud Mariupol' 2+ goals
21%
Yarud Mariupol' 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria (draw refunded)
70%
Yarud Mariupol' (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Yarud Mariupol' away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria attack 1.67 + Yarud Mariupol' defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.46

Yarud Mariupol' attack 1.04 + Oleksandria defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Oleksandria scores more
51%
level
27%
Yarud Mariupol' scores more
22%

Oleksandria at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Oleksandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 53% of Oleksandria’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 26% of Oleksandria’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • Oleksandria and Yarud Mariupol' have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Oleksandria
DLWW
Mariupol'
LDDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oleksandria face Yarud Mariupol' (Persha Liga)

Persha Liga returns with Oleksandria hosting Yarud Mariupol'. Match starts September 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.