Oleksandria 0–3 Shakhtar Donetsk: Result & Stats

Oleksandria

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Shakhtar Donetsk

2/26/2024

Premier League · Round 18CSC Nika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Oleksandria16%

×Draw21%

Shakhtar Donetsk63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OleksandriaExpected goals in this matchShakhtar Donetsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.87

1.96

Oleksandria

0.87

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.96

Shakhtar Donetsk creates 125% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

0.86

creates per match

2.12

1.79

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Oleksandria

0.86

Shakhtar Donetsk

2.12

allows per match

Oleksandria

1.79

Shakhtar Donetsk

0.88

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Oleksandria-0.11scores less

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–211%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Oleksandria or draw

37%

Oleksandria or Shakhtar Donetsk

79%

Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk

84%

Winning margin

Oleksandria wins by 2+

5%

Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Oleksandria 1+ goals

58%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

22%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

6%

Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals

86%

Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals

58%

Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

20%

Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.79 · 8 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away — creates 2.12, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria attack 0.86 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.87

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 2.12 + Oleksandria defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Oleksandria scores more

16%

level

21%

Shakhtar Donetsk scores more

63%

Shakhtar Donetsk at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff