Oleksandria 2–2 Shakhtar Donetsk: Result & Stats

Oleksandria

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Shakhtar Donetsk

E. Banada 90'

O. Dovgy 89'

M. Solomon 32'

Tete 24'

7/19/2020

Premier League · Championship Round - 10CSC Nika Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Oleksandria22%

×Draw24%

Shakhtar Donetsk54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OleksandriaExpected goals in this matchShakhtar Donetsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.72

Oleksandria

1.00

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.72

Shakhtar Donetsk creates 72% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

1.19

creates per match

1.86

1.57

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Oleksandria

1.19

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.86

allows per match

Oleksandria

1.57

Shakhtar Donetsk

0.81

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Oleksandria-0.04on par

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.21scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Oleksandria or draw

46%

Oleksandria or Shakhtar Donetsk

76%

Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk

78%

Winning margin

Oleksandria wins by 2+

8%

Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Oleksandria 1+ goals

63%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

26%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

8%

Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals

82%

Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals

51%

Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

29%

Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.57 · 13 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.81 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria attack 1.19 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.00

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.86 + Oleksandria defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Oleksandria scores more

22%

level

24%

Shakhtar Donetsk scores more

54%

Shakhtar Donetsk at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

D. Sikan

24'

Tete↳ M. Solomon

32'

M. Solomon

44'

E. Banada← E. Banada

46'

M. Zaderaka← D. Miroshnichenko

46'

V. Babohlo← G. Bukhal

58'

D. Bezborodko

67'

D. Hrechyshkin← O. Dovgy

74'

S. Bolbat← V. Vakula

74'

M. Cipriano← Vitao

82'

M. Solomon← Dentinho

82'

D. Bezborodko← B. Myshenko

83'

85'

89'

90'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

OleksandriaShakhtar

Overview

36%Possession64%

8Total Shots10

7Corners5

12Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots10

4On Target7

4Off Target3

Passing

36%Possession64%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0