Oleksandria 1–1 Rukh Vynnyky: Result & Stats

Oleksandria

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rukh Vynnyky

D. Miroshnichenko 80'

Y. Karabin 88' (pen)

11/28/2022

Premier League · Round 15KSK Nika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Oleksandria35%

×Draw26%

Rukh Vynnyky39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OleksandriaExpected goals in this matchRukh Vynnyky

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.36

Oleksandria

1.27

Rukh Vynnyky

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

1.19

creates per match

1.15

1.57

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Oleksandria

1.19

Rukh Vynnyky

1.15

allows per match

Oleksandria

1.57

Rukh Vynnyky

1.36

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Oleksandria-0.04on par

Rukh Vynnyky+0.05on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria ↓

Rukh Vynnyky →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Oleksandria or draw

61%

Oleksandria or Rukh Vynnyky

74%

Draw or Rukh Vynnyky

65%

Winning margin

Oleksandria wins by 2+

15%

Rukh Vynnyky wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Oleksandria 1+ goals

72%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

36%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

14%

Rukh Vynnyky 1+ goals

74%

Rukh Vynnyky 2+ goals

39%

Rukh Vynnyky 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

47%

Rukh Vynnyky (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.57 · 13 matches

Rukh Vynnyky away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.36 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria attack 1.19 + Rukh Vynnyky defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Rukh Vynnyky attack 1.15 + Oleksandria defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oleksandria scores more

35%

level

26%

Rukh Vynnyky scores more

39%

Rukh Vynnyky at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rukh Vynnyky will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Yurii Klymchuk

15'

A. Avagimyan← A. Shulyanskyi

27'

D. Pidgurskyi← O. Prytula

40'

B. Kobzar← M. Tretyakov

43'

45+1'

45+1'

45+1'

47'

58'

58'

58'

67'

V. Runich← V. Solomon-Otabor

74'

Y. Karabin← Talles

80'

D. Miroshnichenko↳ S. Rybalka

84'

D. Skorko← O. Kozhushko

84'

V. Voloshyn← K. Kovalets

88'

Y. KarabinPenalty

90+5'

90+5'

90+5'

90+2'

Shots

Statistics

OleksandriaRukh

Overview

11Total Shots8

8Corners14

1Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots8

5On Target5

6Off Target3

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

1Fouls16

3Yellow Cards9

0Red Cards1