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Oleksandria vs Prykarpattia — Persha Liga 2026

Oleksandria
Oleksandria
Preview
16:00
Prykarpattia
Prykarpattia
4/3/2027Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 21
54%
Oleksandria
model favours
54%25%21%

Oleksandria score first in only 15% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Oleksandria54%
×Draw25%
Prykarpattia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oleksandria
1.61
Prykarpattia
0.89

Oleksandria creates 81% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 89 away

creates per match

Oleksandria
1.67
Prykarpattia
1.11

allows per match

Oleksandria
0.67
Prykarpattia
1.55

finishing

Oleksandria+0.00on par
Prykarpattia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria ↓

Prykarpattia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Oleksandria or draw
79%
Oleksandria or Prykarpattia
75%
Draw or Prykarpattia
46%

Winning margin

Oleksandria wins by 2+
29%
Prykarpattia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Oleksandria 1+ goals
80%
Oleksandria 2+ goals
48%
Oleksandria 3+ goals
22%
Prykarpattia 1+ goals
59%
Prykarpattia 2+ goals
22%
Prykarpattia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria (draw refunded)
72%
Prykarpattia (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Prykarpattia away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.55 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria attack 1.67 + Prykarpattia defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.61

Prykarpattia attack 1.11 + Oleksandria defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Oleksandria scores more
54%
level
25%
Prykarpattia scores more
21%

Oleksandria at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Oleksandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 53% of Oleksandria’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 26% of Oleksandria’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • Oleksandria and Prykarpattia have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Oleksandria
DLWW
Prykarpattia
WDDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oleksandria face Prykarpattia (Persha Liga)

Persha Liga returns with Oleksandria hosting Prykarpattia. Match starts April 3, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.