Oleksandria 3–3 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

Oleksandria

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

B. Kobzar 82'

M. Tretyakov 69', 7'

M. Shershen 47'

K. Bychek 33'

Y. Tkachuk 21'

2/27/2023

Premier League · Round 6KSK Nika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Oleksandria29%

×Draw28%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OleksandriaExpected goals in this matchMetalist 1925 Kharkiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.30

Oleksandria

1.03

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

1.30

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv creates 26% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

1.19

creates per match

1.10

1.50

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Oleksandria

1.19

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

1.10

allows per match

Oleksandria

1.50

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

0.87

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Oleksandria-0.12scores less

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv-0.30scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria ↓

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Oleksandria or draw

57%

Oleksandria or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

72%

Draw or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

71%

Winning margin

Oleksandria wins by 2+

11%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Oleksandria 1+ goals

64%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

28%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

9%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals

73%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals

37%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

41%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.87 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria attack 1.19 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.03

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.10 + Oleksandria defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Oleksandria scores more

29%

level

28%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more

43%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Metalist 1925 Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

M. Tretyakov↳ E. Mustafaev

21'

Y. Tkachuk↳ B. Vachiberadze

30'

Andrii Yuriiovych Chyruk

33'

K. Bychek↳ A. Chyruk

46'

O. Kozhushko← A. Shulyanskyi

46'

B. Kobzar← V. Voloshyn

47'

M. Shershen

56'

D. Sydorenko← O. Mozil

66'

D. Kapinus← K. Bychek

67'

V. Kalitvintsev← A. Tsurikov

67'

K. Kovalets← S. Rybalka

69'

M. Tretyakov↳ E. Mustafaev

73'

Beka Vachiberadze

76'

Rostyslav Rusyn

80'

V. Dmytrenko← M. Shershen

80'

A. Abdullaev← B. Vachiberadze

82'

B. Kobzar↳ O. Kozhushko

87'

A. Avagimyan← E. Mustafaev

90+2'

Evgen Tkachuk

Possession

Shots

Statistics

OleksandriaMetalist

Overview

65%Possession35%

20Total Shots5

12Corners3

3Fouls12

Shots

20Total Shots5

9On Target3

6Off Target1

5Blocked1

Passing

65%Possession35%

Discipline

3Fouls12

0Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

Premier League: Oleksandria 3–3 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

Oleksandria and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv drew 3-3 in Premier League on February 27, 2023.

Goals: M. Tretyakov (7', 69'), Y. Tkachuk (21'), K. Bychek (33'), M. Shershen (47'), B. Kobzar (82').

Oleksandria controlled possession (65%) and registered 20 shots to 5.

The match was played at KSK Nika in Aleksandriya.

Oleksandria vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Premier League: Oleksandria 3–3 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv