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Oleksandria vs Metal Kharkiv — Persha Liga 2026

Oleksandria
Oleksandria
Preview
17:00
Metal Kharkiv
Metal Kharkiv
3/20/2027Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 19
45%
Oleksandria
model favours
45%27%28%

Oleksandria score first in only 15% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Oleksandria45%
×Draw27%
Metal Kharkiv28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oleksandria
1.36
Metal Kharkiv
1.01

Oleksandria creates 35% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 50 away

creates per match

Oleksandria
1.67
Metal Kharkiv
1.34

allows per match

Oleksandria
0.67
Metal Kharkiv
1.06

finishing

Oleksandria+0.00on par
Metal Kharkiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria ↓

Metal Kharkiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Oleksandria or draw
72%
Oleksandria or Metal Kharkiv
73%
Draw or Metal Kharkiv
55%

Winning margin

Oleksandria wins by 2+
21%
Metal Kharkiv wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Oleksandria 1+ goals
74%
Oleksandria 2+ goals
39%
Oleksandria 3+ goals
16%
Metal Kharkiv 1+ goals
64%
Metal Kharkiv 2+ goals
27%
Metal Kharkiv 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria (draw refunded)
62%
Metal Kharkiv (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Metal Kharkiv away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.06 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria attack 1.67 + Metal Kharkiv defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.36

Metal Kharkiv attack 1.34 + Oleksandria defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oleksandria scores more
45%
level
27%
Metal Kharkiv scores more
28%

Oleksandria at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oleksandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 53% of Oleksandria’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 26% of Oleksandria’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Oleksandria
DLWW
Kharkiv
DLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Oleksandria host Metal Kharkiv

March 20, 2027: Oleksandria take on Metal Kharkiv in Persha Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.