Oleksandria 4–3 Inhulets: Result & Stats

Oleksandria

FT

4 – 3

HT: 4 – 1

Inhulets

M. Dudka 41'

V. Bondarenko 35'

D. Ustymenko 10'

V. Grytsuk 7'

D. Yanakov 74' (pen)

M. Bartulović 67' (pen)

I. Kovalenko 43'

10/18/2020

Premier League · Round 6KSK Nika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Oleksandria49%

×Draw25%

Inhulets26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OleksandriaExpected goals in this matchInhulets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.07

Oleksandria

1.59

Inhulets

1.07

Oleksandria creates 49% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 53 away

1.44

creates per match

0.83

1.32

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Oleksandria

1.44

Inhulets

0.83

allows per match

Oleksandria

1.32

Inhulets

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oleksandria+0.00on par

Inhulets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria ↓

Inhulets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Oleksandria or draw

74%

Oleksandria or Inhulets

75%

Draw or Inhulets

51%

Winning margin

Oleksandria wins by 2+

26%

Inhulets wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Oleksandria 1+ goals

80%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

47%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

21%

Inhulets 1+ goals

66%

Inhulets 2+ goals

29%

Inhulets 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

66%

Inhulets (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.32 · 97 matches

Inhulets away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.75 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria attack 1.44 + Inhulets defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.59

Inhulets attack 0.83 + Oleksandria defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Oleksandria scores more

49%

level

25%

Inhulets scores more

26%

Oleksandria at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Oleksandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

V. Grytsuk↳ V. Luchkevych

10'

D. Ustymenko↳ M. Tretyakov

24'

Denys Yanakov

28'

Valeriy Luchkevych

34'

Pavlo Pashaev

35'

V. Bondarenko↳ V. Baboglo

41'

M. Dudka

43'

I. Kovalenko↳ D. Balan

45'

Valeriy Luchkevych

45'

Valeriy Luchkevych

45'

Ilya Kovalenko

46'

N. Sichinava← A. Semenko

48'

Oleksandr Kucherenko

52'

Denys Balan

58'

Bogdan Myshenko

67'

M. BartulovićPenalty

69'

Vitali Pavlov

72'

A. Sitalo← D. Ustymenko

74'

Oleksandr Melnyk

74'

D. YanakovPenalty

75'

M. Kvasnyi← D. Fateev

80'

K. Dubra← M. Dudka

89'

M. Zaderaka← M. Tretyakov

Possession

Shots

Statistics

OleksandriaInhulets

Overview

44%Possession56%

7Total Shots12

1Corners6

12Fouls19

Shots

7Total Shots12

5On Target7

2Off Target5

Passing

44%Possession56%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls19

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

1Offsides0