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Oleksandria vs Chornomorets — Premier League 2026

Oleksandria
Oleksandria
CANC
17:30
Chornomorets
Chornomorets
3/14/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21KSK Nika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Oleksandria45%
×Draw25%
Chornomorets30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oleksandria
1.52
Chornomorets
1.18

Oleksandria creates 29% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 75 away

creates per match

Oleksandria
1.44
Chornomorets
1.04

allows per match

Oleksandria
1.32
Chornomorets
1.60

finishing

Oleksandria+0.00on par
Chornomorets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria ↓

Chornomorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Oleksandria or draw
70%
Oleksandria or Chornomorets
75%
Draw or Chornomorets
55%

Winning margin

Oleksandria wins by 2+
22%
Chornomorets wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oleksandria 1+ goals
78%
Oleksandria 2+ goals
45%
Oleksandria 3+ goals
20%
Chornomorets 1+ goals
69%
Chornomorets 2+ goals
33%
Chornomorets 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria (draw refunded)
60%
Chornomorets (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.32 · 97 matches

Chornomorets away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.60 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria attack 1.44 + Chornomorets defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Chornomorets attack 1.04 + Oleksandria defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oleksandria scores more
45%
level
25%
Chornomorets scores more
30%

Oleksandria at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oleksandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Oleksandria host Chornomorets

March 14, 2022: Oleksandria take on Chornomorets in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Oleksandria host Chornomorets at KSK Nika.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.