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Oleksandria vs Chernihiv — Persha Liga 2026

Oleksandria
Oleksandria
Preview
16:00
Chernihiv
Chernihiv
8/29/2026Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 5
57%
Oleksandria
model favours
57%24%19%

Oleksandria score first in only 15% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Oleksandria57%
×Draw24%
Chernihiv19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oleksandria
1.65
Chernihiv
0.83

Oleksandria creates 99% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 42 away

creates per match

Oleksandria
1.67
Chernihiv
1.00

allows per match

Oleksandria
0.67
Chernihiv
1.62

finishing

Oleksandria+0.00on par
Chernihiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria ↓

Chernihiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Oleksandria or draw
81%
Oleksandria or Chernihiv
76%
Draw or Chernihiv
43%

Winning margin

Oleksandria wins by 2+
31%
Chernihiv wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Oleksandria 1+ goals
81%
Oleksandria 2+ goals
49%
Oleksandria 3+ goals
23%
Chernihiv 1+ goals
56%
Chernihiv 2+ goals
20%
Chernihiv 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria (draw refunded)
75%
Chernihiv (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Chernihiv away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria attack 1.67 + Chernihiv defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.65

Chernihiv attack 1.00 + Oleksandria defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Oleksandria scores more
57%
level
24%
Chernihiv scores more
19%

Oleksandria at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Oleksandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chernihiv score first in only 19% of matches
  • 53% of Oleksandria’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both teams score in 75% of Chernihiv’s matches
  • 26% of Oleksandria’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • Oleksandria and Chernihiv have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Oleksandria
DLWW
Chernihiv
DLLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oleksandria vs Chernihiv — Match Preview

Oleksandria face Chernihiv on August 29, 2026 in this Persha Liga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.