Oldham vs Leeds United U21 — League #46 2026
League #46 · Group North - 7
Leeds United U21 score first in only 15% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Oldham52%
Leeds United U2129%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Oldham creates 33% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over87
- Under13
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes83
- No17
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Oldham ↓
Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Oldham at home — creates 1.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches
Leeds United U21 away — creates 1.25, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Oldham attack 1.67 + Leeds United U21 defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.83
Leeds United U21 attack 1.25 + Oldham defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.13
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Oldham at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- 80% of Leeds United U21’s matches go over 2.5 goals
- Leeds United U21 have scored in 7 games running
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Oldham host Leeds United U21 on Wednesday, 2 September 2026 at 18:00. The match is part of the League #46 2026/2027 season.
Oldham face Leeds United U21 (League #46)
League #46 returns with Oldham hosting Leeds United U21. Match starts September 2, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.