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Oldham vs Grimsby — League Two 2018

Oldham
Oldham
Preview
14:00
Grimsby
Grimsby
4/3/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 39Boundary Park
Big match
41%
Oldham
model favours
41%26%33%
1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Oldham41%
×Draw26%
Grimsby33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.43
Grimsby
1.27

Oldham creates 13% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 158 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.45
Grimsby
1.11

allows per match

Oldham
1.42
Grimsby
1.41

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Grimsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
67%
Oldham or Grimsby
74%
Draw or Grimsby
59%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
19%
Grimsby wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
76%
Oldham 2+ goals
42%
Oldham 3+ goals
17%
Grimsby 1+ goals
72%
Grimsby 2+ goals
36%
Grimsby 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
55%
Grimsby (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.45 + Grimsby defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.43

Grimsby attack 1.11 + Oldham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oldham scores more
41%
level
26%
Grimsby scores more
33%

Oldham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Oldham play Attack-heavy, Grimsby Defensively solid

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Oldham
Attack-heavy
Grimsby
Defensively solid
47%Possession51%
64%Pass accuracy66%
12.7ShotsBiggest gap11.8
1.57xG1.63
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
OldhamGrimsby

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

3
Oldham
3
Draws
1
Grimsby
Avg goals: 1.9BTTS: 29%
1–00–01–20–02–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Oldham
WLLLL
Grimsby
DWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oldham vs Grimsby — Match Preview

Oldham face Grimsby on April 3, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Oldham host Grimsby at Boundary Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.