Oldenburger SV 1–3 SV Eichede: Result & Stats

Oldenburger SV

FT

1 – 3

SV Eichede

10/8/2021

League #744 · Schleswig-Holstein - 8Hans-Peter-Storm-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Oldenburger SV10%

×Draw16%

SV Eichede74%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oldenburger SVExpected goals in this matchSV Eichede

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

2.44

Oldenburger SV

0.77

SV Eichede

2.44

SV Eichede creates 217% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 23 away

0.80

creates per match

2.09

2.80

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

Oldenburger SV

0.80

SV Eichede

2.09

allows per match

Oldenburger SV

2.80

SV Eichede

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oldenburger SV+0.00on par

SV Eichede+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldenburger SV ↓

SV Eichede →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–110%

0–212%

0–310%

0–46%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Oldenburger SV or draw

26%

Oldenburger SV or SV Eichede

84%

Draw or SV Eichede

90%

Winning margin

Oldenburger SV wins by 2+

3%

SV Eichede wins by 2+

51%

Team goals

Oldenburger SV 1+ goals

54%

Oldenburger SV 2+ goals

18%

Oldenburger SV 3+ goals

4%

SV Eichede 1+ goals

91%

SV Eichede 2+ goals

70%

SV Eichede 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Oldenburger SV (draw refunded)

12%

SV Eichede (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldenburger SV at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

SV Eichede away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldenburger SV attack 0.80 + SV Eichede defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.77

SV Eichede attack 2.09 + Oldenburger SV defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Oldenburger SV scores more

10%

level

16%

SV Eichede scores more

74%

SV Eichede at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "SV Eichede will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff