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Olancho vs Juticalpa — Liga Nacional 2018

Olancho
Olancho
Preview
01:30
Juticalpa
Juticalpa
8/17/2026Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 3Estadio Juan Ramon Breve Vargas
Big match
58%
Olancho
model favours
58%23%19%
1–0
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Olancho58%
×Draw23%
Juticalpa19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olancho
1.84
Juticalpa
0.94

Olancho creates 96% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 55 away

creates per match

Olancho
1.62
Juticalpa
0.87

allows per match

Olancho
1.00
Juticalpa
2.07

finishing

Olancho+0.00on par
Juticalpa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olancho ↓

Juticalpa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Olancho or draw
81%
Olancho or Juticalpa
77%
Draw or Juticalpa
42%

Winning margin

Olancho wins by 2+
34%
Juticalpa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Olancho 1+ goals
84%
Olancho 2+ goals
55%
Olancho 3+ goals
28%
Juticalpa 1+ goals
61%
Juticalpa 2+ goals
24%
Juticalpa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Olancho (draw refunded)
75%
Juticalpa (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olancho at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.00 · 85 matches

Juticalpa away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.07 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olancho attack 1.62 + Juticalpa defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.84

Juticalpa attack 0.87 + Olancho defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Olancho scores more
58%
level
23%
Juticalpa scores more
19%

Olancho at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Olancho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Olancho
DLWLD
Juticalpa
WLLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Olancho vs Juticalpa — Match Preview

Olancho face Juticalpa on August 17, 2026 in this Liga Nacional fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Olancho host Juticalpa at Estadio Juan Ramon Breve Vargas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.