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Okzhetpes vs Zhenys — Cup 2019

Okzhetpes
Okzhetpes
FT
3 – 1
Zhenys
Zhenys
4/22/2021CupCup · 1st Preliminary RoundStadion Oqjetpes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Okzhetpes26%
×Draw21%
Zhenys53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Okzhetpes
1.48
Zhenys
2.15

Zhenys creates 45% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Okzhetpes
1.33
Zhenys
2.13

allows per match

Okzhetpes
2.17
Zhenys
1.63

finishing

Okzhetpes+0.00on par
Zhenys+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Okzhetpes ↓

Zhenys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Okzhetpes or draw
47%
Okzhetpes or Zhenys
79%
Draw or Zhenys
74%

Winning margin

Okzhetpes wins by 2+
12%
Zhenys wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Okzhetpes 1+ goals
77%
Okzhetpes 2+ goals
43%
Okzhetpes 3+ goals
19%
Zhenys 1+ goals
88%
Zhenys 2+ goals
63%
Zhenys 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Okzhetpes (draw refunded)
33%
Zhenys (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Okzhetpes at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Zhenys away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Okzhetpes attack 1.33 + Zhenys defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Zhenys attack 2.13 + Okzhetpes defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Okzhetpes scores more
26%
level
21%
Zhenys scores more
53%

Zhenys at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zhenys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Okzhetpes 3–1 Zhenys

Okzhetpes beat Zhenys 3-1 in Cup on April 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Oqjetpes in Kokshetau.