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Okzhetpes vs Ordabasy — Cup 2019

Okzhetpes
Okzhetpes
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ordabasy
Ordabasy
4/10/2019CupCup · 8th FinalsStadion Oqjetpes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Okzhetpes22%
×Draw22%
Ordabasy56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Okzhetpes
1.10
Ordabasy
1.91

Ordabasy creates 74% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

creates per match

Okzhetpes
1.33
Ordabasy
1.65

allows per match

Okzhetpes
2.17
Ordabasy
0.88

finishing

Okzhetpes+0.00on par
Ordabasy+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Okzhetpes ↓

Ordabasy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Okzhetpes or draw
44%
Okzhetpes or Ordabasy
78%
Draw or Ordabasy
78%

Winning margin

Okzhetpes wins by 2+
8%
Ordabasy wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Okzhetpes 1+ goals
67%
Okzhetpes 2+ goals
30%
Okzhetpes 3+ goals
10%
Ordabasy 1+ goals
85%
Ordabasy 2+ goals
57%
Ordabasy 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Okzhetpes (draw refunded)
28%
Ordabasy (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Okzhetpes at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Ordabasy away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Okzhetpes attack 1.33 + Ordabasy defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.10

Ordabasy attack 1.65 + Okzhetpes defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Okzhetpes scores more
22%
level
22%
Ordabasy scores more
56%

Ordabasy at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ordabasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Okzhetpes vs Ordabasy

Ordabasy beat Okzhetpes 1-0 in Cup on April 10, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Oqjetpes in Kokshetau.