Guadalupe FC 0–1 CS Herediano: Result & Stats

Guadalupe FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

CS Herediano

Y. Ruiz 18'

9/23/2016

League #162 · Torneo de Invierno - 13Estadio Eladio Rosabal Cordero (Heredia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Guadalupe FC12%

×Draw19%

CS Herediano69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guadalupe FCExpected goals in this matchCS Herediano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.74

2.10

Guadalupe FC

0.74

CS Herediano

2.10

CS Herediano creates 184% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

0.67

creates per match

1.20

3.00

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Guadalupe FC

0.67

CS Herediano

1.20

allows per match

Guadalupe FC

3.00

CS Herediano

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guadalupe FC+0.00on par

CS Herediano+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalupe FC ↓

CS Herediano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–213%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Guadalupe FC or draw

31%

Guadalupe FC or CS Herediano

81%

Draw or CS Herediano

88%

Winning margin

Guadalupe FC wins by 2+

3%

CS Herediano wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Guadalupe FC 1+ goals

52%

Guadalupe FC 2+ goals

17%

Guadalupe FC 3+ goals

4%

CS Herediano 1+ goals

88%

CS Herediano 2+ goals

62%

CS Herediano 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Guadalupe FC (draw refunded)

15%

CS Herediano (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalupe FC at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

CS Herediano away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalupe FC attack 0.67 + CS Herediano defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

CS Herediano attack 1.20 + Guadalupe FC defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Guadalupe FC scores more

12%

level

19%

CS Herediano scores more

69%

CS Herediano at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "CS Herediano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Y. Ruiz

63'

B. López← B. Vega

63'

J. Morales← J. Martínez

72'

K. Alemán← V. Scott

73'

L. Colitto← Y. Ruiz

80'

R. Brenes← J. Marín

80'

H. Saravia← E. Aguilar