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OKC Energy vs Tulsa Roughnecks — USL Championship 2018

OKC Energy
OKC Energy
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
3/18/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 2Taft Stadium (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

OKC Energy42%
×Draw26%
Tulsa Roughnecks32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OKC Energy
1.43
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.20

OKC Energy creates 19% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 130 away

creates per match

OKC Energy
1.05
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.19

allows per match

OKC Energy
1.21
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.81

finishing

OKC Energy+0.00on par
Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OKC Energy ↓

Tulsa Roughnecks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

OKC Energy or draw
68%
OKC Energy or Tulsa Roughnecks
74%
Draw or Tulsa Roughnecks
58%

Winning margin

OKC Energy wins by 2+
20%
Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

OKC Energy 1+ goals
76%
OKC Energy 2+ goals
42%
OKC Energy 3+ goals
17%
Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
70%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
34%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

OKC Energy (draw refunded)
57%
Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OKC Energy at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 58 matches

Tulsa Roughnecks away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OKC Energy attack 1.05 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.43

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.19 + OKC Energy defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

OKC Energy scores more
42%
level
26%
Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
32%

OKC Energy at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "OKC Energy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OKC Energy vs Tulsa Roughnecks

OKC Energy beat Tulsa Roughnecks 1-0 in USL Championship on March 18, 2018.

The match was played at Taft Stadium (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma).