Oita Trinita 1–0 Yokohama FC: Result & Stats

Oita Trinita

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Yokohama FC

9/20/2020

J1 League · Round 17Ōita Bank Dome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Oita Trinita48%

×Draw27%

Yokohama FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oita TrinitaExpected goals in this matchYokohama FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.92

Oita Trinita

1.39

Yokohama FC

0.92

Oita Trinita creates 51% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 72 away

0.92

creates per match

0.78

1.06

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Oita Trinita

0.92

Yokohama FC

0.78

allows per match

Oita Trinita

1.06

Yokohama FC

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oita Trinita+0.00on par

Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oita Trinita ↓

Yokohama FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Oita Trinita or draw

75%

Oita Trinita or Yokohama FC

73%

Draw or Yokohama FC

52%

Winning margin

Oita Trinita wins by 2+

23%

Yokohama FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Oita Trinita 1+ goals

75%

Oita Trinita 2+ goals

40%

Oita Trinita 3+ goals

16%

Yokohama FC 1+ goals

60%

Yokohama FC 2+ goals

23%

Yokohama FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Oita Trinita (draw refunded)

66%

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oita Trinita at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.06 · 53 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oita Trinita attack 0.92 + Yokohama FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.39

Yokohama FC attack 0.78 + Oita Trinita defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Oita Trinita scores more

48%

level

27%

Yokohama FC scores more

25%

Oita Trinita at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Oita Trinita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff