Oita Trinita 1–0 Tokushima Vortis: Result & Stats

Oita Trinita

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tokushima Vortis

S. Nagasawa 76'

4/10/2022

J2 League · Round 9Showa Denko Dome Ōita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Oita Trinita36%

×Draw28%

Tokushima Vortis35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oita TrinitaExpected goals in this matchTokushima Vortis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.15

Oita Trinita

1.17

Tokushima Vortis

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 149 away

1.33

creates per match

1.19

1.10

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Oita Trinita

1.33

Tokushima Vortis

1.19

allows per match

Oita Trinita

1.10

Tokushima Vortis

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oita Trinita+0.00on par

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oita Trinita ↓

Tokushima Vortis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Oita Trinita or draw

65%

Oita Trinita or Tokushima Vortis

72%

Draw or Tokushima Vortis

64%

Winning margin

Oita Trinita wins by 2+

15%

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Oita Trinita 1+ goals

69%

Oita Trinita 2+ goals

33%

Oita Trinita 3+ goals

11%

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

68%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

32%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Oita Trinita (draw refunded)

51%

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oita Trinita at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.10 · 102 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.01 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oita Trinita attack 1.33 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.17

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.19 + Oita Trinita defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Oita Trinita scores more

36%

level

28%

Tokushima Vortis scores more

35%

Oita Trinita at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Oita Trinita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

S. Nagasawa

63'

K. Sugimori← A. Hamashita

72'

A. Masuyama← R. Matsumoto

72'

K. Isa← H. Goya

72'

K. Inoue← S. Kobayashi

74'

Cacá← K. Uchida

74'

76'

81'

84'

90+4'

90'

Eduardo Neto← H. Shimoda

Oita

Tokushima

1

13

25

22

6

▼

Uchida

7

▼

Shirai

24

▼

Nishiya

37

▼

20

27

9

1

14

3

7

▼

Matsumoto

6

Kobayashi

11

▼

Shimoda

25

▼

Kobayashi

31

Pereira

20

⚽

Nagasawa

33

▼

Goya

16

Watanabe

Manager: T. Shimotaira

72'▲A. Masuyama←▼R. Matsumoto

72'▲K. Isa←▼H. Goya

72'▲K. Inoue←▼S. Kobayashi

84'▲K. Saka←▼A. Masuyama

90'▲Eduardo Neto←▼H. Shimoda

Oita Trinita substitutes

39Masuyama13Isa17Inoue4Saka21Neto44Yoshida22Samuel

Manager: Daniel Algaba

63'▲K. Sugimori←▼A. Hamashita

74'▲Cacá←▼K. Uchida

74'▲S. Fujio←▼K. Nishiya

81'▲M. Watai←▼E. Shirai

Tokushima Vortis substitutes

11Sugimori14Cacá15Fujio10Watai29Matsuzawa16Kawakami19Hasegawa