Oita Trinita 1–1 Tokushima Vortis: Result & Stats

Oita Trinita

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tokushima Vortis

A. Watanabe 59'

T. Kishimoto 37'

2/27/2021

J1 League · Round 1Showa Denko Dome Ōita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Oita Trinita47%

×Draw28%

Tokushima Vortis25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oita TrinitaExpected goals in this matchTokushima Vortis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.90

Oita Trinita

1.33

Tokushima Vortis

0.90

Oita Trinita creates 48% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 23 away

0.92

creates per match

0.74

1.06

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Oita Trinita

0.92

Tokushima Vortis

0.74

allows per match

Oita Trinita

1.06

Tokushima Vortis

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oita Trinita+0.00on par

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oita Trinita ↓

Tokushima Vortis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Oita Trinita or draw

75%

Oita Trinita or Tokushima Vortis

72%

Draw or Tokushima Vortis

53%

Winning margin

Oita Trinita wins by 2+

22%

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Oita Trinita 1+ goals

74%

Oita Trinita 2+ goals

38%

Oita Trinita 3+ goals

15%

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

59%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

23%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Oita Trinita (draw refunded)

65%

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oita Trinita at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.06 · 53 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oita Trinita attack 0.92 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tokushima Vortis attack 0.74 + Oita Trinita defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Oita Trinita scores more

47%

level

28%

Tokushima Vortis scores more

25%

Oita Trinita at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Oita Trinita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Watanabe

Oita Trinita · F

7.5

Match Events

37'

T. Kishimoto

46'

Y. Machida← N. Nomura

56'

C. Kawakami← N. Fuke

59'

A. Watanabe

76'

K. Isa← Y. Takazawa

76'

R. Matsumoto← K. Takahata

77'

T. Abe← H. Ishii

81'

M. Watai← S. Fujiwara

81'

A. Kawata← Y. Kakita

90+7'

S. Nagasawa← K. Inoue

90'

R. Tone← A. Watanabe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OitaTokushima

Overview

39%Possession61%

8Total Shots14

4Corners4

9Fouls5

Shots

8Total Shots14

2On Target2

3Off Target6

3Blocked6

4Inside Box8

4Outside Box6

Passing

39%Possession61%

384Total Passes601

301Accurate Passes515

78%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls5