Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ohod vs Jeddah Club — Division 1 2018

Ohod
Ohod
FT
2 – 0
Jeddah Club
Jeddah Club
5/26/2021Division 1Division 1 · Round 37Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Ohod40%
×Draw28%
Jeddah Club33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ohod
1.27
Jeddah Club
1.13

Ohod creates 12% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 127 away

creates per match

Ohod
1.18
Jeddah Club
1.19

allows per match

Ohod
1.07
Jeddah Club
1.37

finishing

Ohod+0.00on par
Jeddah Club+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ohod ↓

Jeddah Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ohod or draw
67%
Ohod or Jeddah Club
72%
Draw or Jeddah Club
60%

Winning margin

Ohod wins by 2+
18%
Jeddah Club wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ohod 1+ goals
72%
Ohod 2+ goals
36%
Ohod 3+ goals
14%
Jeddah Club 1+ goals
68%
Jeddah Club 2+ goals
31%
Jeddah Club 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ohod (draw refunded)
55%
Jeddah Club (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ohod at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.07 · 108 matches

Jeddah Club away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.37 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ohod attack 1.18 + Jeddah Club defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Jeddah Club attack 1.19 + Ohod defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ohod scores more
40%
level
28%
Jeddah Club scores more
33%

Ohod at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ohod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ohod vs Jeddah Club

Ohod beat Jeddah Club 2-0 in Division 1 on May 26, 2021.

The match was played at Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Medina.