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Ohod vs Al-Qadisiyah FC — Pro League 2018

Ohod
Ohod
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC
12/17/2018Pro LeaguePro League · Round 13Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ohod31%
×Draw25%
Al-Qadisiyah FC44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ohod
1.27
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.56

Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 64 away

creates per match

Ohod
1.07
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.58

allows per match

Ohod
1.53
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.48

finishing

Ohod+0.00on par
Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ohod ↓

Al-Qadisiyah FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ohod or draw
56%
Ohod or Al-Qadisiyah FC
75%
Draw or Al-Qadisiyah FC
69%

Winning margin

Ohod wins by 2+
13%
Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ohod 1+ goals
72%
Ohod 2+ goals
36%
Ohod 3+ goals
14%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals
79%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals
46%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ohod (draw refunded)
41%
Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ohod at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.48 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ohod attack 1.07 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.27

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.58 + Ohod defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ohod scores more
31%
level
25%
Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more
44%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ohod vs Al-Qadisiyah FC

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Ohod 3-1 in Pro League on December 17, 2018.

The match was played at Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Medina.