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Ohod vs Al Jabalain — Division 1 2018

Ohod
Ohod
FT
1 – 1
Al Jabalain
Al Jabalain
5/15/2021Division 1Division 1 · Round 35Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Ohod36%
×Draw29%
Al Jabalain35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ohod
1.15
Al Jabalain
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 128 away

creates per match

Ohod
1.18
Al Jabalain
1.17

allows per match

Ohod
1.07
Al Jabalain
1.11

finishing

Ohod+0.00on par
Al Jabalain+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ohod ↓

Al Jabalain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ohod or draw
65%
Ohod or Al Jabalain
71%
Draw or Al Jabalain
64%

Winning margin

Ohod wins by 2+
15%
Al Jabalain wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ohod 1+ goals
68%
Ohod 2+ goals
32%
Ohod 3+ goals
11%
Al Jabalain 1+ goals
67%
Al Jabalain 2+ goals
31%
Al Jabalain 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ohod (draw refunded)
51%
Al Jabalain (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ohod at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.07 · 108 matches

Al Jabalain away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.11 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ohod attack 1.18 + Al Jabalain defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Al Jabalain attack 1.17 + Ohod defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Ohod scores more
36%
level
29%
Al Jabalain scores more
35%

Ohod at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ohod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Ohod 1–1 Al Jabalain

Ohod and Al Jabalain drew 1-1 in Division 1 on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Medina.