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OH Leuven vs St. Truiden — Jupiler Pro League 2026

OH Leuven
OH Leuven
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
St. Truiden
St. Truiden
H. Mendyl 79', 60'
S. Schrijvers 22' (pen)
N. Nsingi 12'
10/22/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 11King Power at Den Dreef Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 41+ matches

OH Leuven38%
×Draw26%
St. Truiden36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OH Leuven
1.39
St. Truiden
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 41 away

creates per match

OH Leuven
1.32
St. Truiden
1.37

allows per match

OH Leuven
1.33
St. Truiden
1.46

finishing

OH Leuven-0.16scores less
St. Truiden-0.13scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OH Leuven ↓

St. Truiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

OH Leuven or draw
64%
OH Leuven or St. Truiden
74%
Draw or St. Truiden
62%

Winning margin

OH Leuven wins by 2+
18%
St. Truiden wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

OH Leuven 1+ goals
75%
OH Leuven 2+ goals
40%
OH Leuven 3+ goals
16%
St. Truiden 1+ goals
74%
St. Truiden 2+ goals
39%
St. Truiden 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

OH Leuven (draw refunded)
51%
St. Truiden (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OH Leuven at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.33 · 44 matches

St. Truiden away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.46 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OH Leuven attack 1.32 + St. Truiden defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.39

St. Truiden attack 1.37 + OH Leuven defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

OH Leuven scores more
38%
level
26%
St. Truiden scores more
36%

OH Leuven at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "OH Leuven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
H. MendylOH LeuvenOH Leuven · M
8.6

Match Events

12'
N. Nsingi↳ Y. Maziz
20'
Rein Van Helden
22'
S. SchrijversPenalty
46'
R. Yamamoto← R. Van Helden
59'
Rihito Yamamoto
60'
H. Mendyl↳ K. Misao
62'
Siebe Schrijvers
70'
Daiki Hashioka
77'
M. Maertens← J. Braut Brunes
77'
F. Ananou← D. Hashioka
77'
K. Zahiroleslam← R. Ito
79'
H. Mendyl↳ N. Nsingi
80'
Hamza MendylGoal confirmed
81'
J. Þorsteinsson← Y. Maziz
90'
K. N’Dri← N. Nsingi
90'
E. Banzuzi← S. Schrijvers

Possession

34%OH

Shots

11OH

Pass accuracy

46%OH

Statistics

OHSt.
Overview
34%Possession66%
11Total Shots18
2.21Expected Goals (xG)0.91
3Corners7
9Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots18
4On Target3
4Off Target5
3Blocked10
7Inside Box6
4Outside Box12
Passing
34%Possession66%
298Total Passes581
226Accurate Passes518
76%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
9Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides1

Jupiler Pro League: OH Leuven 4–0 St. Truiden

OH Leuven beat St. Truiden 4-0 in Jupiler Pro League on October 22, 2023.

Goals: N. Nsingi (12'), S. Schrijvers (22' pen), H. Mendyl (60', 79').

St. Truiden controlled possession (66%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion in Heverlee.