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OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen — Jupiler Pro League 2018

OH Leuven
OH Leuven
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen
3/17/2024Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 30King Power at Den Dreef Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

OH Leuven45%
×Draw25%
KV Mechelen30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OH Leuven
1.60
KV Mechelen
1.27

OH Leuven creates 26% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 21 away

creates per match

OH Leuven
1.32
KV Mechelen
1.10

allows per match

OH Leuven
1.43
KV Mechelen
1.88

finishing

OH Leuven+0.03on par
KV Mechelen+0.33scores more

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OH Leuven ↓

KV Mechelen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

OH Leuven or draw
70%
OH Leuven or KV Mechelen
75%
Draw or KV Mechelen
55%

Winning margin

OH Leuven wins by 2+
23%
KV Mechelen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

OH Leuven 1+ goals
80%
OH Leuven 2+ goals
47%
OH Leuven 3+ goals
22%
KV Mechelen 1+ goals
72%
KV Mechelen 2+ goals
36%
KV Mechelen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

OH Leuven (draw refunded)
60%
KV Mechelen (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OH Leuven at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 26 matches

KV Mechelen away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.88 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OH Leuven attack 1.32 + KV Mechelen defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.60

KV Mechelen attack 1.10 + OH Leuven defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

OH Leuven scores more
45%
level
25%
KV Mechelen scores more
30%

OH Leuven at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "OH Leuven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OH Leuven 1 – 0 KV Mechelen

OH Leuven beat KV Mechelen 1-0 in Jupiler Pro League on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion in Heverlee.