OH Leuven 0–0 Charleroi: Result & Stats

OH Leuven

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Charleroi

2/17/2024

Jupiler Pro League · Round 26King Power at Den Dreef Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

OH Leuven38%

×Draw26%

Charleroi36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OH LeuvenExpected goals in this matchCharleroi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.34

OH Leuven

1.39

Charleroi

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 16 away

1.32

creates per match

1.25

1.43

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

OH Leuven

1.32

Charleroi

1.25

allows per match

OH Leuven

1.43

Charleroi

1.45

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

OH Leuven+0.03on par

Charleroi+0.06on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OH Leuven ↓

Charleroi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

OH Leuven or draw

64%

OH Leuven or Charleroi

74%

Draw or Charleroi

62%

Winning margin

OH Leuven wins by 2+

18%

Charleroi wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

OH Leuven 1+ goals

75%

OH Leuven 2+ goals

40%

OH Leuven 3+ goals

16%

Charleroi 1+ goals

74%

Charleroi 2+ goals

39%

Charleroi 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

OH Leuven (draw refunded)

52%

Charleroi (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OH Leuven at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 26 matches

Charleroi away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.45 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OH Leuven attack 1.32 + Charleroi defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

Charleroi attack 1.25 + OH Leuven defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

OH Leuven scores more

38%

level

26%

Charleroi scores more

36%

OH Leuven at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "OH Leuven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff