OH Leuven 3–2 Cercle Brugge: Result & Stats

OH Leuven

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Cercle Brugge

Mousa Al-Tamari 67'

S. Kaba 63'

M. Maertens 40'

K. Denkey 43'

R. Matondo 32'

2/12/2022

Jupiler Pro League · Round 27King Power at Den Dreef Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

OH Leuven35%

×Draw25%

Cercle Brugge40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OH LeuvenExpected goals in this matchCercle Brugge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.46

OH Leuven

1.36

Cercle Brugge

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 30 away

1.23

creates per match

1.53

1.39

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

OH Leuven

1.23

Cercle Brugge

1.53

allows per match

OH Leuven

1.39

Cercle Brugge

1.49

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

OH Leuven+0.01on par

Cercle Brugge-0.20scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OH Leuven ↓

Cercle Brugge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

OH Leuven or draw

60%

OH Leuven or Cercle Brugge

75%

Draw or Cercle Brugge

65%

Winning margin

OH Leuven wins by 2+

16%

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

OH Leuven 1+ goals

74%

OH Leuven 2+ goals

39%

OH Leuven 3+ goals

16%

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

77%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

43%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

OH Leuven (draw refunded)

47%

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OH Leuven at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.39 · 29 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.49 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OH Leuven attack 1.23 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Cercle Brugge attack 1.53 + OH Leuven defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

OH Leuven scores more

35%

level

25%

Cercle Brugge scores more

40%

Cercle Brugge at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

M. Maertens

OH Leuven · F

8.3

Match Events

6'

Franck Kanouté

32'

R. Matondo

40'

M. Maertens

43'

K. Denkey↳ D. Velkovski

46'

Leonardo Lopes← F. Kanoute

46'

Sousa← D. Velkovski

53'

Hannes Van Der Bruggen

63'

S. Kaba↳ C. De Norre

67'

Mousa Al-Tamari↳ M. Maertens

69'

Musa Al-TaamariGoal confirmed

69'

S. Ganvoula← K. Denkey

78'

Olivier Deman

83'

Sébastien Dewaest

88'

A. Sampers← H. Van der Bruggen

89'

90+6'

90+6'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OHCercle

Overview

57%Possession43%

10Total Shots15

5Corners5

13Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots15

5On Target5

3Off Target5

2Blocked5

7Inside Box8

3Outside Box7

Passing

57%Possession43%

393Total Passes281

261Accurate Passes163

66%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1