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OFI vs Volos NFC — Super League 1 2018

OFI
OFI
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Volos NFC
Volos NFC
11/24/2023Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 12Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

OFI45%
×Draw26%
Volos NFC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFI
1.49
Volos NFC
1.14

OFI creates 31% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 118 away

creates per match

OFI
1.27
Volos NFC
1.00

allows per match

OFI
1.28
Volos NFC
1.71

finishing

OFI+0.00on par
Volos NFC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFI ↓

Volos NFC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

OFI or draw
71%
OFI or Volos NFC
74%
Draw or Volos NFC
55%

Winning margin

OFI wins by 2+
22%
Volos NFC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

OFI 1+ goals
77%
OFI 2+ goals
44%
OFI 3+ goals
19%
Volos NFC 1+ goals
68%
Volos NFC 2+ goals
32%
Volos NFC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

OFI (draw refunded)
61%
Volos NFC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFI at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.28 · 132 matches

Volos NFC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.71 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFI attack 1.27 + Volos NFC defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.49

Volos NFC attack 1.00 + OFI defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

OFI scores more
45%
level
26%
Volos NFC scores more
29%

OFI at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "OFI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OFI 1 – 1 Volos NFC

OFI and Volos NFC drew 1-1 in Super League 1 on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis in Heraklion.