Oeste U20 vs Desportivo Brasil U20

Oeste U20

Preview

18:00

Desportivo Brasil U20

9/12/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 15

50%

Oeste U20

model favours

50%24%26%

Desportivo Brasil U20 score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

over 2.5 goals

56%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Oeste U2050%

×Draw24%

Desportivo Brasil U2026%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oeste U20Expected goals in this matchDesportivo Brasil U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.15

Oeste U20

1.69

Desportivo Brasil U20

1.15

Oeste U20 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

1.76

creates per match

1.43

0.86

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Oeste U20

1.76

Desportivo Brasil U20

1.43

allows per match

Oeste U20

0.86

Desportivo Brasil U20

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oeste U20+0.00on par

Desportivo Brasil U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste U20 ↓

Desportivo Brasil U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Oeste U20 or draw

74%

Oeste U20 or Desportivo Brasil U20

76%

Draw or Desportivo Brasil U20

50%

Winning margin

Oeste U20 wins by 2+

27%

Desportivo Brasil U20 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Oeste U20 1+ goals

82%

Oeste U20 2+ goals

50%

Oeste U20 3+ goals

24%

Desportivo Brasil U20 1+ goals

68%

Desportivo Brasil U20 2+ goals

32%

Desportivo Brasil U20 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Oeste U20 (draw refunded)

66%

Desportivo Brasil U20 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste U20 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Desportivo Brasil U20 away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste U20 attack 1.76 + Desportivo Brasil U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.69

Desportivo Brasil U20 attack 1.43 + Oeste U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Oeste U20 scores more

50%

level

24%

Desportivo Brasil U20 scores more

26%

Oeste U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Oeste U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in only 18% of Desportivo Brasil U20’s matches
73% of Desportivo Brasil U20’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Oeste U20 sit 41, Desportivo Brasil U20 14 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U20

LLWWW

U20

WLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff