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Oeste U20 vs Botafogo SP U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Oeste U20
Oeste U20
Preview
18:00
Botafogo SP U20
Botafogo SP U20
8/11/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 11
48%
Oeste U20
model favours
48%24%28%

33% of Botafogo SP U20’s goals come after the 75th minute

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Oeste U2048%
×Draw24%
Botafogo SP U2028%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oeste U20
1.73
Botafogo SP U20
1.26

Oeste U20 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 24 away

creates per match

Oeste U20
1.76
Botafogo SP U20
1.67

allows per match

Oeste U20
0.86
Botafogo SP U20
1.71

finishing

Oeste U20+0.00on par
Botafogo SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste U20 ↓

Botafogo SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Oeste U20 or draw
72%
Oeste U20 or Botafogo SP U20
76%
Draw or Botafogo SP U20
52%

Winning margin

Oeste U20 wins by 2+
26%
Botafogo SP U20 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oeste U20 1+ goals
82%
Oeste U20 2+ goals
52%
Oeste U20 3+ goals
25%
Botafogo SP U20 1+ goals
72%
Botafogo SP U20 2+ goals
36%
Botafogo SP U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Oeste U20 (draw refunded)
63%
Botafogo SP U20 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste U20 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Botafogo SP U20 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste U20 attack 1.76 + Botafogo SP U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Botafogo SP U20 attack 1.67 + Oeste U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Oeste U20 scores more
48%
level
24%
Botafogo SP U20 scores more
28%

Oeste U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Oeste U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Oeste U20 and Botafogo SP U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LLWWW
U20
LDDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oeste U20 vs Botafogo SP U20 — Match Preview

Oeste U20 face Botafogo SP U20 on August 11, 2026 in this Paulista - U20 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.