Odra Opole vs Chrobry Głogów: Preview & Prediction

Odra Opole

Preview

16:00

Chrobry Głogów

2/6/2027

I Liga · Round 19Itaka Arena

Big match

38%

Chrobry Głogów

model favours

35%27%38%

Chrobry Głogów score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

55%

under 2.5 goals

50%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Odra Opole35%

×Draw27%

Chrobry Głogów38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Odra OpoleExpected goals in this matchChrobry Głogów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.27

Odra Opole

1.21

Chrobry Głogów

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 25 away

1.05

creates per match

1.08

1.45

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Odra Opole

1.05

Chrobry Głogów

1.08

allows per match

Odra Opole

1.45

Chrobry Głogów

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Odra Opole+0.00on par

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Opole ↓

Chrobry Głogów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Odra Opole or draw

62%

Odra Opole or Chrobry Głogów

73%

Draw or Chrobry Głogów

65%

Winning margin

Odra Opole wins by 2+

15%

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Odra Opole 1+ goals

70%

Odra Opole 2+ goals

34%

Odra Opole 3+ goals

12%

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

72%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

36%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Odra Opole (draw refunded)

48%

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Opole at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Opole attack 1.05 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.08 + Odra Opole defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Odra Opole scores more

35%

level

27%

Chrobry Głogów scores more

38%

Chrobry Głogów at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Chrobry Głogów have scored in 12 games running
83% of Chrobry Głogów’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Odra Opole win just 17% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Opole

LDLD

Głogów

WLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff