Odisha 6–5 East Bengal: Result & Stats

Odisha

FT

6 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

East Bengal

2/27/2021

Indian Super League · Round 22GMC Stadium Bambolim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Odisha47%

×Draw24%

East Bengal30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OdishaExpected goals in this matchEast Bengal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.33

Odisha

1.73

East Bengal

1.33

Odisha creates 30% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 53 away

1.75

creates per match

1.11

1.56

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Odisha

1.75

East Bengal

1.11

allows per match

Odisha

1.56

East Bengal

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Odisha+0.00on par

East Bengal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odisha ↓

East Bengal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Odisha or draw

70%

Odisha or East Bengal

76%

Draw or East Bengal

53%

Winning margin

Odisha wins by 2+

25%

East Bengal wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Odisha 1+ goals

82%

Odisha 2+ goals

52%

Odisha 3+ goals

25%

East Bengal 1+ goals

74%

East Bengal 2+ goals

38%

East Bengal 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Odisha (draw refunded)

61%

East Bengal (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odisha at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.56 · 68 matches

East Bengal away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.70 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odisha attack 1.75 + East Bengal defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.73

East Bengal attack 1.11 + Odisha defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Odisha scores more

47%

level

24%

East Bengal scores more

30%

Odisha at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Odisha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff