Odisha 0–4 ATK Mohun Bagan: Result & Stats

Odisha

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

ATK Mohun Bagan

9/19/2023

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Kalinga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Odisha46%

×Draw21%

ATK Mohun Bagan33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OdishaExpected goals in this matchATK Mohun Bagan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.70

Odisha

2.02

ATK Mohun Bagan

1.70

Odisha creates 19% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.75

creates per match

2.14

1.25

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Odisha

1.75

ATK Mohun Bagan

2.14

allows per match

Odisha

1.25

ATK Mohun Bagan

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Odisha+0.00on par

ATK Mohun Bagan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odisha ↓

ATK Mohun Bagan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Odisha or draw

67%

Odisha or ATK Mohun Bagan

79%

Draw or ATK Mohun Bagan

54%

Winning margin

Odisha wins by 2+

26%

ATK Mohun Bagan wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Odisha 1+ goals

87%

Odisha 2+ goals

60%

Odisha 3+ goals

33%

ATK Mohun Bagan 1+ goals

82%

ATK Mohun Bagan 2+ goals

51%

ATK Mohun Bagan 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Odisha (draw refunded)

58%

ATK Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odisha at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

ATK Mohun Bagan away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odisha attack 1.75 + ATK Mohun Bagan defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.02

ATK Mohun Bagan attack 2.14 + Odisha defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Odisha scores more

46%

level

21%

ATK Mohun Bagan scores more

33%

Odisha at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Odisha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff