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Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC — Superettan 2018

Oddevold
Oddevold
Preview
11:00
Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC
7/18/2026SuperettanSuperettan · Round 15Rimnersvallen
Big match
40%
Varbergs BoIS FC
model favours
36%25%40%

Varbergs BoIS FC score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Oddevold36%
×Draw25%
Varbergs BoIS FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oddevold
1.43
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 66 away

creates per match

Oddevold
1.27
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.58

allows per match

Oddevold
1.46
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.59

finishing

Oddevold+0.00on par
Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oddevold ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Oddevold or draw
60%
Oddevold or Varbergs BoIS FC
75%
Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC
64%

Winning margin

Oddevold wins by 2+
17%
Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Oddevold 1+ goals
76%
Oddevold 2+ goals
42%
Oddevold 3+ goals
17%
Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals
78%
Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals
45%
Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Oddevold (draw refunded)
47%
Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oddevold at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.46 · 37 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oddevold attack 1.27 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.43

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.58 + Oddevold defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oddevold scores more
36%
level
25%
Varbergs BoIS FC scores more
40%

Varbergs BoIS FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Varbergs BoIS FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Oddevold
DDWLL
FC
WWLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oddevold face Varbergs BoIS FC (Superettan)

Superettan returns with Oddevold hosting Varbergs BoIS FC. Match starts July 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Oddevold host Varbergs BoIS FC at Rimnersvallen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.