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Odd W vs Start W — 1. Division Women 2022

Odd W
Odd W
Preview
12:00
Start W
Start W
9/13/20261. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 17
42%
Odd W
model favours
42%25%33%
1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Odd W42%
×Draw25%
Start W33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odd W
1.53
Start W
1.31

Odd W creates 17% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 16 away

creates per match

Odd W
1.62
Start W
1.31

allows per match

Odd W
1.31
Start W
1.44

finishing

Odd W+0.00on par
Start W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odd W ↓

Start W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Odd W or draw
67%
Odd W or Start W
75%
Draw or Start W
58%

Winning margin

Odd W wins by 2+
21%
Start W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Odd W 1+ goals
78%
Odd W 2+ goals
45%
Odd W 3+ goals
20%
Start W 1+ goals
73%
Start W 2+ goals
38%
Start W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Odd W (draw refunded)
57%
Start W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odd W at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Start W away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odd W attack 1.62 + Start W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.53

Start W attack 1.31 + Odd W defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Odd W scores more
42%
level
25%
Start W scores more
33%

Odd W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Odd W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
WWDDW
W
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Odd W host Start W

September 13, 2026: Odd W take on Start W in 1. Division Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.