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ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset — Eliteserien 2026

ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
A. Stensrud 88'
C. Wallem 83'
V. Hoff 47', 1'
F. Jørgensen 20'
J. Braut Brunes 26'
11/6/2022EliteserienEliteserien · Round 29Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb47%
×Draw24%
Stromsgodset29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ODD Ballklubb
1.69
Stromsgodset
1.27

ODD Ballklubb creates 33% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 35 away

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.30
Stromsgodset
1.06

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.49
Stromsgodset
2.09

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.05on par
Stromsgodset+0.05on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Stromsgodset →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw
71%
ODD Ballklubb or Stromsgodset
76%
Draw or Stromsgodset
53%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
25%
Stromsgodset wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
82%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
50%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
24%
Stromsgodset 1+ goals
72%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
36%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
62%
Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.49 · 23 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.09 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.30 + Stromsgodset defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.69

Stromsgodset attack 1.06 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more
47%
level
24%
Stromsgodset scores more
29%

ODD Ballklubb at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
V. HoffODD BallklubbODD Ballklubb · M
8.7

Match Events

1'
V. Hoff↳ C. Wallem
20'
F. Jørgensen↳ M. Ingebrigtsen
26'
J. Braut Brunes↳ F. Holst-Larsen
31'
Espen Ruud
47'
V. Hoff↳ E. Ruud
55'
Vebjørn Hoff
60'
S. Aas← S. Owusu
72'
F. Friday← J. Braut Brunes
72'
N. Gunnarsson← O. Enersen
73'
F. Tewelde← D. Gjengaar
73'
M. Jevtović← G. Rólantsson
76'
A. Thorsen← T. Gulliksen
83'
C. Wallem↳ E. Ruud
86'
T. Rekdal← F. Jørgensen
86'
A. Stensrud← M. Ingebrigtsen
88'
A. Stensrud
89'
Abel Stensrud

Possession

ODD: 59Stromsgodset: 4159%ODD

Shots

ODD: 17Stromsgodset: 517ODD

Pass accuracy

ODD: 88Stromsgodset: 8451%ODD

Statistics

ODDStromsgodset
Overview
59%Possession41%
17Total Shots5
6Corners2
6Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots5
10On Target3
7Off Target2
0Blocked0
15Inside Box3
2Outside Box2
Passing
59%Possession41%
577Total Passes404
510Accurate Passes338
88%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
6Fouls12
3Yellow Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset

ODD Ballklubb beat Stromsgodset 5-1 in Eliteserien on November 6, 2022.

Goals: V. Hoff (1', 47'), F. Jørgensen (20'), J. Braut Brunes (26'), C. Wallem (83'), A. Stensrud (88').

ODD Ballklubb controlled possession (59%) and registered 17 shots to 5.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.