ODD Ballklubb 2–2 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Stromsgodset

T. Børven 30'

E. Ruud 12'

Marcus Pedersen 81'

K. Tokstad 50'

8/12/2018

Eliteserien · Round 18Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb47%

×Draw24%

Stromsgodset29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.27

ODD Ballklubb

1.69

Stromsgodset

1.27

ODD Ballklubb creates 33% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 36 away

1.30

creates per match

1.06

1.49

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.30

Stromsgodset

1.06

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.49

Stromsgodset

2.08

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.05on par

Stromsgodset+0.02on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

71%

ODD Ballklubb or Stromsgodset

76%

Draw or Stromsgodset

53%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

25%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

82%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

50%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

24%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

72%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

36%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

62%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.49 · 23 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.30 + Stromsgodset defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.69

Stromsgodset attack 1.06 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

47%

level

24%

Stromsgodset scores more

29%

ODD Ballklubb at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Marcus Pedersen

Stromsgodset · F

8.2

Match Events

12'

E. Ruud↳ S. Hagen

17'

Eirik Andersen

30'

T. Børven↳ E. Rashani

41'

H. Stengel← Francisco Júnior

50'

K. Tokstad↳ Marcus Pedersen

52'

Elbasan Rashani

52'

Lars Christopher Vilsvik

60'

Henning Hauger

64'

F. Nordkvelle← M. Kaasa

64'

T. Lauritsen← T. Børven

69'

Birk Risa

75'

T. Nguen← A. Pellegrino

81'

Marcus Pedersen↳ E. Andersen

87'

S. Mladenovic← B. Njie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ODDStromsgodset

Overview

37%Possession63%

9Total Shots15

5Corners6

13Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots15

4On Target3

3Off Target9

2Blocked3

6Inside Box9

3Outside Box6

Passing

37%Possession63%

305Total Passes493

210Accurate Passes410

69%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1