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ODD Ballklubb vs Kongsvinger — 1. Division 2026

ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
Preview
17:00
Kongsvinger
Kongsvinger
8/26/20261. Division1. Division · Round 19Skagerak Arena
40%
ODD Ballklubb
model favours
40%24%36%

93% of Kongsvinger’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb40%
×Draw24%
Kongsvinger36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ODD Ballklubb
1.56
Kongsvinger
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 102 away

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.57
Kongsvinger
1.50

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.43
Kongsvinger
1.54

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par
Kongsvinger+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Kongsvinger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw
64%
ODD Ballklubb or Kongsvinger
76%
Draw or Kongsvinger
60%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
20%
Kongsvinger wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
79%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
46%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
21%
Kongsvinger 1+ goals
77%
Kongsvinger 2+ goals
43%
Kongsvinger 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
53%
Kongsvinger (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

Kongsvinger away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.54 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.57 + Kongsvinger defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.56

Kongsvinger attack 1.50 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more
40%
level
24%
Kongsvinger scores more
36%

ODD Ballklubb at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both sides lean high-scoring (77% and 93% over 2.5)
  • Both teams score in 92% of ODD Ballklubb’s matches
  • Kongsvinger score first in only 21% of matches
  • 77% of ODD Ballklubb’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • ODD Ballklubb score first in only 31% of matches
  • Both teams score in 79% of Kongsvinger’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ballklubb
LDDLW
Kongsvinger
WLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ODD Ballklubb face Kongsvinger (1. Division)

1. Division returns with ODD Ballklubb hosting Kongsvinger. Match starts August 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

ODD Ballklubb host Kongsvinger at Skagerak Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.